On April 2, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. These tariffs are “reciprocal” in that they correspond to tariffs each country imposes on U.S. goods and are on top of previously announced duties. The average tariff rate across countries is 25%, with rates for some as high as 49%. While the implementation of these tariffs was widely telegraphed by the White House, the level and scope are greater than many expected. The immediate market reaction was as expected, as global markets and futures fell sharply, while Treasury yields declined. At this point, the tariff announcements are not a game-changer for the market as a whole, but we are closely monitoring things and will make changes in our models if we believe the market environment calls for it. There are two main reasons currently why we feel this needs some time to play out, before any immediate changes are warranted.

First, the administration implied that these tariffs are a ceiling, and they are open to negotiation for reductions, so it does remain a possibility in the coming months, these initial tariffs can be reduced. Second, there were important exemptions including all the USMCA-compliant goods, chips from Taiwan, and pharmaceuticals from Europe. Those two are very important categories and will help soften the blow from these tariffs. That said, this is another unknown for the stock market, and the stock market likes certainty, so we do expect the recent “chop” and volatility to continue in the near term. From a positioning standpoint, this further provides clarity on why having a diversified portfolio is needed to temper this volatility.

The newly announced tariff measures have been set at a minimum 10% rate, with levels varying based on the U.S. trade deficit with each country. China, for instance, faces a reciprocal tariff rate of 34%, which is in addition to 20% tariffs previously announced. The European Union will be subject to 20% tariffs, while Canada and Mexico will not be immediately impacted by new reciprocal tariffs, and are instead subject to the previously-announced 25% tariffs related to illegal immigration and fentanyl. There is also an across-the-board 25% tariff on all imported automobiles, effective immediately.

It’s important in times like these to remember that markets can be fragile in the short run but are resilient in the long run. Over the past century, markets have experienced significant global economic shifts including wars, recessions, bubbles, pandemics, political change, and technological revolutions. In times of uncertainty, it can feel as if markets will never stabilize. Yet, history shows that markets can overcome even the most significant shocks, and often rebound when it’s least expected, as they did in early 2009 after the global financial crisis, in mid-2020 during the pandemic, in late 2022 after a technology-led bear market, and across countless other examples. Having the discipline to stay invested and stick to your financial plan is a key principle for generating long-term wealth.

The United States has a long history of tariffs, and in fact they were the primary source of federal revenue prior to the establishment of the federal income tax system in 1913. However, they fell out of favor after World War II as globalization took hold. The administration’s arguments for tariffs are to raise revenues and ensure economic fairness. Arguments against tariffs are that they effectively tax consumers who ultimately pay higher prices for goods. This is particularly sensitive today due to the inflation that households have experienced over the past few years.

How does this affect markets and companies? It will take time to truly understand the impact, although some areas will be affected more than others. The general fear is that tariffs could shock the economy, potentially spurring inflation and slowing economic activity. As such, markets have already reacted negatively. For example, while some domestic manufacturers might benefit from less foreign competition, markets tend to view trade barriers as negative for corporate profits, at least in the near term. Just as in the past, new trade policies force businesses to reconsider how they operate. They may adjust their sourcing strategies and can consider absorbing portions of the tariffs themselves.

In response to the 2018 tariffs, a portion of S&P 500 companies shifted their supply chains out of countries like China to reduce the impact of tariffs. These corporations relocated manufacturing facilities, found alternative suppliers, or adjusted their global production networks. While this can help companies navigate this latest round of tariffs, it takes time to adjust supply chains.

The S&P 500 sectors that are most directly impacted could be the ones with the greatest proportion of revenues coming from international sources. Nearly 30% of S&P 500 sales come from overseas, with information technology, materials, communication services, consumer staples and energy having the largest exposures. In addition to the impact on revenues, tariffs will likely affect company profit margins by raising costs for foreign-sourced components. However, it’s important to note that this is occurring at a time when operating margins are historically high and productivity growth is rising. This could provide some cushion for profits. One important fact is that a weaker dollar can be positive for both investors and companies as well. International stocks have performed better this year, and a weaker dollar means that international assets are potentially more valuable in U.S. dollar terms. For companies, a weaker dollar can spur foreign sales since the cost of U.S. goods sold abroad becomes cheaper for foreign buyers.

Despite the immediate market reaction, it will take time for the true impact of these trade policy changes to play out. In recent years, investors have faced numerous market concerns including the pandemic, inflation, the possibility of a Fed policy error, recession fears, and more. Each of these challenges likely felt insurmountable at the time to some. Yet, markets not only recovered, but rose to new levels over the following years and decades. While history does not often repeat itself, it does rhyme and there are many reasons to believe markets and the economy can eventually move past the current set of concerns.

Warren Buffett said it best in 2008, during the middle of the global financial crisis: “In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.” This is a helpful reminder that although market swoons can be unsettling, history shows that keeping a long-term perspective is the best way to stay on track to achieve your financial goals.

The bottom line? As investors, it is important to focus on what we can control. In light of recent market moves and policy changes, the best approach is still to stay focused on the long run and stick to a personalized financial plan. We are always here to answer any questions you may have, so please do not hesitate to reach out.